Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Projecting genetic associations through gene expression patterns highlights disease etiology and drug mechanisms.

Genes act in concert with each other in specific contexts to perform their functions. Determining how these genes influence complex traits requires a mechanistic understanding of expression regulation across different conditions. It has been shown that this insight is critical for developing new therapies. Transcriptome-wide association studies have helped uncover the role of individual genes in disease-relevant mechanisms. However, modern models of the architecture of complex traits predict that gene-gene interactions play a crucial role in disease origin and progression. Here we introduce PhenoPLIER, a computational approach that maps gene-trait associations and pharmacological perturbation data into a common latent representation for a joint analysis. This representation is based on modules of genes with similar expression patterns across the same conditions. We observe that diseases are significantly associated with gene modules expressed in relevant cell types, and our approach is accurate in predicting known drug-disease pairs and inferring mechanisms of action. Furthermore, using a CRISPR screen to analyze lipid regulation, we find that functionally important players lack associations but are prioritized in trait-associated modules by PhenoPLIER. By incorporating groups of co-expressed genes, PhenoPLIER can contextualize genetic associations and reveal potential targets missed by single-gene strategies.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

A metadata framework for computational phenotypes.

With the burgeoning development of computational phenotypes, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right phenotype for the right tasks. This study uses a mixed-methods approach to develop and evaluate a novel metadata framework for retrieval of and reusing computational phenotypes. Twenty active phenotyping researchers from 2 large research networks, Electronic Medical Records and Genomics and Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, were recruited to suggest metadata elements. Once consensus was reached on 39 metadata elements, 47 new researchers were surveyed to evaluate the utility of the metadata framework. The survey consisted of 5-Likert multiple-choice questions and open-ended questions. Two more researchers were asked to use the metadata framework to annotate 8 type-2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. More than 90% of the survey respondents rated metadata elements regarding phenotype definition and validation methods and metrics positively with a score of 4 or 5. Both researchers completed annotation of each phenotype within 60 min. Our thematic analysis of the narrative feedback indicates that the metadata framework was effective in capturing rich and explicit descriptions and enabling the search for phenotypes, compliance with data standards, and comprehensive validation metrics. Current limitations were its complexity for data collection and the entailed human costs.

Quantifying factors that affect polygenic risk score performance across diverse ancestries and age groups for body mass index.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have led to enthusiasm for precision medicine. However, it is well documented that PRS do not generalize across groups differing in ancestry or sample characteristics e.g., age. Quantifying performance of PRS across different groups of study participants, using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from multiple ancestry groups and sample sizes, and using different linkage disequilibrium (LD) reference panels may clarify which factors are limiting PRS transferability. To evaluate these factors in the PRS generation process, we generated body mass index (BMI) PRS (PRSBMI) in the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network (N=75,661). Analyses were conducted in two ancestry groups (European and African) and three age ranges (adult, teenagers, and children). For PRSBMI calculations, we evaluated five LD reference panels and three sets of GWAS summary statistics of varying sample size and ancestry. PRSBMI performance increased for both African and European ancestry individuals using cross-ancestry GWAS summary statistics compared to European-only summary statistics (6.3% and 3.7% relative R2 increase, respectively, pAfrican=0.038, pEuropean=6.26x10-4). The effects of LD reference panels were more pronounced in African ancestry study datasets. PRSBMI performance degraded in children; R2 was less than half of teenagers or adults. The effect of GWAS summary statistics sample size was small when modeled with the other factors. Additionally, the potential of using a PRS generated for one trait to predict risk for comorbid diseases is not well understood especially in the context of cross-ancestry analyses - we explored clinical comorbidities from the electronic health record associated with PRSBMI and identified significant associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary atherosclerosis. In summary, this study quantifies the effects that ancestry, GWAS summary statistic sample size, and LD reference panel have on PRS performance, especially in cross-ancestry and age-specific analyses.

Haplotype-specific chromatin looping reveals genetic interactions of regulatory regions modulating gene expression in 8p23.1.

A major goal of genetics research is to elucidate mechanisms explaining how genetic variation contributes to phenotypic variation. The genetic variants identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) generally explain only a small proportion of heritability of phenotypic traits, the so-called missing heritability problem. Recent evidence suggests that additional common variants beyond lead GWAS variants contribute to phenotypic variation; however, their mechanistic underpinnings generally remain unexplored. Herein, we undertake a study of haplotype-specific mechanisms of gene regulation at 8p23.1 in the human genome, a region associated with a number of complex diseases. The FAM167A-BLK locus in this region has been consistently found in the genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in all major ancestries. Our haplotype-specific chromatin interaction (Hi-C) experiments, allele-specific enhancer activity measurements, genetic analyses, and epigenome editing experiments revealed that: 1) haplotype-specific long-range chromatin interactions are prevalent in 8p23.1; 2) BLK promoter and cis-regulatory elements cooperatively interact with haplotype-specificity; 3) genetic variants at distal regulatory elements are allele-specific modifiers of the promoter variants at FAM167A-BLK; 4) the BLK promoter interacts with and, as an enhancer-like promoter, regulates FAM167A expression and 5) local allele-specific enhancer activities are influenced by global haplotype structure due to chromatin looping. Although systemic lupus erythematosus causal variants at the FAM167A-BLK locus are thought to reside in the BLK promoter region, our results reveal that genetic variants at distal regulatory elements modulate promoter activity, changing BLK and FAM167A gene expression and disease risk. Our results suggest that global haplotype-specific 3-dimensional chromatin looping architecture has a strong influence on local allelic BLK and FAM167A gene expression, providing mechanistic details for how regional variants controlling the BLK promoter may influence disease risk.

Pathogenic variants in arteriopathy genes detected in a targeted sequencing study: Penetrance and 1-year outcomes after return of results.

PURPOSE: We estimated the penetrance of pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in arteriopathy-related genes and assessed near-term outcomes following return of results. METHODS: Participants (N = 24,520) in phase III of the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics network underwent targeted sequencing of 68 actionable genes, including 9 genes associated with arterial aneurysmal diseases. Penetrance was estimated on the basis of the presence of relevant clinical traits. Outcomes occurring within 1 year of return of results included new diagnoses, referral to a specialist, new tests ordered, surveillance initiated, and new medications started. RESULTS: P/LP variants were present in 34 participants. The average penetrance across genes was 59%, ranging from 86% for FBN1 variants to 25% for SMAD3. Of 16 participants in whom results were returned, 1-year outcomes occurred in 63%. A new diagnosis was made in 44% of the participants, 56% were referred to a specialist, a new test was ordered in 44%, surveillance was initiated in 31%, and a new medication was started in 31%. CONCLUSION: Penetrance of P/LP variants in arteriopathy-related genes, identified in a large, targeted sequencing study, was variable and overall lower than that reported in clinical cohorts. Meaningful outcomes within the first year were noted in 63% of participants who received results.

Development and validation of a trans-ancestry polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes in diverse populations.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a worldwide scourge caused by both genetic and environmental risk factors that disproportionately afflicts communities of color. Leveraging existing large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown promise to complement established clinical risk factors and intervention paradigms, and improve early diagnosis and prevention of T2D. However, to date, T2D PRS have been most widely developed and validated in individuals of European descent. Comprehensive assessment of T2D PRS in non-European populations is critical for equitable deployment of PRS to clinical practice that benefits global populations. METHODS: We integrated T2D GWAS in European, African, and East Asian populations to construct a trans-ancestry T2D PRS using a newly developed Bayesian polygenic modeling method, and assessed the prediction accuracy of the PRS in the multi-ethnic Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) study (11,945 cases; 57,694 controls), four Black cohorts (5137 cases; 9657 controls), and the Taiwan Biobank (4570 cases; 84,996 controls). We additionally evaluated a post hoc ancestry adjustment method that can express the polygenic risk on the same scale across ancestrally diverse individuals and facilitate the clinical implementation of the PRS in prospective cohorts. RESULTS: The trans-ancestry PRS was significantly associated with T2D status across the ancestral groups examined. The top 2% of the PRS distribution can identify individuals with an approximately 2.5-4.5-fold of increase in T2D risk, which corresponds to the increased risk of T2D for first-degree relatives. The post hoc ancestry adjustment method eliminated major distributional differences in the PRS across ancestries without compromising its predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: By integrating T2D GWAS from multiple populations, we developed and validated a trans-ancestry PRS, and demonstrated its potential as a meaningful index of risk among diverse patients in clinical settings. Our efforts represent the first step towards the implementation of the T2D PRS into routine healthcare.

Mendelian randomization analysis of plasma levels of CD209 and MICB proteins and the risk of varicose veins of lower extremities.

Varicose veins of lower extremities (VVs) are a highly prevalent condition, the pathogenesis of which is still not fully elucidated. Mendelian randomization (MR) can provide useful preliminary information on the traits that are potentially causally related to the disease. The aim of the present study is to replicate the effects of the plasma levels of MHC class I polypeptide-related sequence B (MICB) and cluster of differentiation 209 (CD209) proteins reported in a previous hypothesis-free MR study. We conducted MR analysis using a fixed effects inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis of Wald ratios method. For MICB and CD209, we used data from a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) for plasma protein levels (N = 3,301). For VVs, we used GWAS data obtained in the FinnGen project (N = 128,698), the eMERGE network (phase 3, N = 48,429), and the UK Biobank data available in the Gene ATLAS (N = 452,264). The data used in the study were obtained in individuals of European descent. The results for MICB did not pass criteria for statistical significance and replication. The results for CD209 passed all statistical significance thresholds, indicating that the genetically predicted increase in CD209 level is associated with increased risk of VVs (ßMR (SE) = 0.07 (0.01), OR (95% CI) = 1.08 (1.05-1.10), P-value = 5.9 ×10-11 in the meta-analysis of three cohorts). Our findings provide further support that CD209 can potentially be involved in VVs. In future studies, independent validation of our results using data from more powerful GWASs for CD209 measured by different methods would be beneficial.

Multiancestral polygenic risk score for pediatric asthma.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is the most common chronic condition in children and the third leading cause of hospitalization in pediatrics. The genome-wide association study catalog reports 140 studies with genome-wide significance. A polygenic risk score (PRS) with predictive value across ancestries has not been evaluated for this important trait. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to train and validate a PRS relying on genetic determinants for asthma to provide predictions for disease occurrence in pediatric cohorts of diverse ancestries. METHODS: This study applied a Bayesian regression framework method using the Trans-National Asthma Genetic Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics to derive a multiancestral PRS score, used one Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) cohort as a training set, used a second independent eMERGE cohort to validate the score, and used the UK Biobank data to replicate the findings. A phenome-wide association study was performed using the PRS to identify shared genetic etiology with other phenotypes. RESULTS: The multiancestral asthma PRS was associated with asthma in the 2 pediatric validation datasets. Overall, the multiancestral asthma PRS has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) in the pediatric validation 1 and AUC of 0.66 (0.65-0.66) in the pediatric validation 2 datasets. We found significant discrimination across pediatric subcohorts of European (AUC, 95% CI, 0.60 and 0.66), African (AUC, 95% CI, 0.61 and 0.66), admixed American (AUC, 0.64 and 0.70), Southeast Asian (AUC, 0.65), and East Asian (AUC, 0.73) ancestry. Pediatric participants with the top 5% PRS had 2.80 to 5.82 increased odds of asthma compared to the bottom 5% across the training, validation 1, and validation 2 cohorts when adjusted for ancestry. Phenome-wide association study analysis confirmed the strong association of the identified PRS with asthma (odds ratio, 2.71, PFDR = 3.71 × 10-65) and related phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: A multiancestral PRS for asthma based on Bayesian posterior genomic effect sizes identifies increased odds of pediatric asthma.

Lupus enhancer risk variant causes dysregulation of IRF8 through cooperative lncRNA and DNA methylation machinery.

Despite strong evidence that human genetic variants affect the expression of many key transcription factors involved in autoimmune diseases, establishing biological links between non-coding risk variants and the gene targets they regulate remains a considerable challenge. Here, we combine genetic, epigenomic, and CRISPR activation approaches to screen for functional variants that regulate IRF8 expression. We demonstrate that the locus containing rs2280381 is a cell-type-specific enhancer for IRF8 that spatially interacts with the IRF8 promoter. Further, rs2280381 mediates IRF8 expression through enhancer RNA AC092723.1, which recruits TET1 to the IRF8 promoter regulating IRF8 expression by affecting methylation levels. The alleles of rs2280381 modulate PU.1 binding and chromatin state to regulate AC092723.1 and IRF8 expression differentially. Our work illustrates an integrative strategy to define functional genetic variants that regulate the expression of critical genes in autoimmune diseases and decipher the mechanisms underlying the dysregulation of IRF8 expression mediated by lupus risk variants.

Arrhythmia Variant Associations and Reclassifications in the eMERGE-III Sequencing Study.

BACKGROUND: Sequencing Mendelian arrhythmia genes in individuals without an indication for arrhythmia genetic testing can identify carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants. However, the extent to which these variants are associated with clinically meaningful phenotypes before or after return of variant results is unclear. In addition, the majority of discovered variants are currently classified as variants of uncertain significance, limiting clinical actionability. METHODS: The eMERGE-III study (Electronic Medical Records and Genomics Phase III) is a multicenter prospective cohort that included 21 846 participants without previous indication for cardiac genetic testing. Participants were sequenced for 109 Mendelian disease genes, including 10 linked to arrhythmia syndromes. Variant carriers were assessed with electronic health record-derived phenotypes and follow-up clinical examination. Selected variants of uncertain significance (n=50) were characterized in vitro with automated electrophysiology experiments in HEK293 cells. RESULTS: As previously reported, 3.0% of participants had P/LP variants in the 109 genes. Herein, we report 120 participants (0.6%) with P/LP arrhythmia variants. Compared with noncarriers, arrhythmia P/LP carriers had a significantly higher burden of arrhythmia phenotypes in their electronic health records. Fifty-four participants had variant results returned. Nineteen of these 54 participants had inherited arrhythmia syndrome diagnoses (primarily long-QT syndrome), and 12 of these 19 diagnoses were made only after variant results were returned (0.05%). After in vitro functional evaluation of 50 variants of uncertain significance, we reclassified 11 variants: 3 to likely benign and 8 to P/LP. CONCLUSIONS: Genome sequencing in a large population without indication for arrhythmia genetic testing identified phenotype-positive carriers of variants in congenital arrhythmia syndrome disease genes. As the genomes of large numbers of people are sequenced, the disease risk from rare variants in arrhythmia genes can be assessed by integrating genomic screening, electronic health record phenotypes, and in vitro functional studies. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier; NCT03394859.

Validation of low-coverage whole-genome sequencing for mitochondrial DNA variants suggests mitochondrial DNA as a genetic cause of preterm birth.

Preterm birth (PTB), or birth that occurs earlier than 37 weeks of gestational age, is a major contributor to infant mortality and neonatal hospitalization. Mutations in the mitochondrial genome (mtDNA) have been linked to various rare mitochondrial disorders and may be a contributing factor in PTB given that maternal genetic factors have been strongly linked to PTB. However, to date, no study has found a conclusive connection between a particular mtDNA variant and PTB. Given the high mtDNA copy number per cell, an automated pipeline was developed for detecting mtDNA variants using low-coverage whole-genome sequencing (lcWGS) data. The pipeline was first validated against samples of known heteroplasmy, and then applied to 929 samples from a PTB cohort from diverse ethnic backgrounds with an average gestational age of 27.18 weeks (range: 21-30). Our new pipeline successfully identified haplogroups and a large number of mtDNA variants in this large PTB cohort, including 8 samples carrying known pathogenic variants and 47 samples carrying rare mtDNA variants. These results confirm that lcWGS can be utilized to reliably identify mtDNA variants. These mtDNA variants may make a contribution toward preterm birth in a small proportion of live births.

Genome-wide association studies of low back pain and lumbar spinal disorders using electronic health record data identify a locus associated with lumbar spinal stenosis.

ABSTRACT: Identifying genetic risk factors for lumbar spine disorders may lead to knowledge regarding underlying mechanisms and the development of new treatments. We conducted a genome-wide association study involving 100,811 participants with genotypes and longitudinal electronic health record data from the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics Network and Geisinger Health. Cases and controls were defined using validated algorithms and clinical diagnostic codes. Electronic health record-defined phenotypes included low back pain requiring healthcare utilization (LBP-HC), lumbosacral radicular syndrome (LSRS), and lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). Genome-wide association study used logistic regression with additive genetic effects adjusting for age, sex, site-specific factors, and ancestry (principal components). A fixed-effect inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis was conducted. Genetic variants of genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) were carried forward for replication in an independent sample from UK Biobank. Phenotype prevalence was 48.8% for LBP-HC, 19.8% for LSRS, and 7.9% for LSS. No variants were significantly associated with LBP-HC. One locus was associated with LSRS (lead variant rs146153280:C>G, odds ratio [OR] = 1.17 for G, P = 2.1 × 10-9), but was not replicated. Another locus on chromosome 2 spanning GFPT1, NFU1, and AAK1 was associated with LSS (lead variant rs13427243:G>A, OR = 1.10 for A, P = 4.3 × 10-8) and replicated in UK Biobank (OR = 1.11, P = 5.4 × 10-5). This was the first genome-wide association study meta-analysis of lumbar spinal disorders using electronic health record data. We identified 2 novel associations with LSRS and LSS; the latter was replicated in an independent sample.

SLE non-coding genetic risk variant determines the epigenetic dysfunction of an immune cell specific enhancer that controls disease-critical microRNA expression.

Since most variants that impact polygenic disease phenotypes localize to non-coding genomic regions, understanding the consequences of regulatory element variants will advance understanding of human disease mechanisms. Here, we report that the systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) risk variant rs2431697 as likely causal for SLE through disruption of a regulatory element, modulating miR-146a expression. Using epigenomic analysis, genome-editing and 3D chromatin structure analysis, we show that rs2431697 tags a cell-type dependent distal enhancer specific for miR-146a that physically interacts with the miR-146a promoter. NF-kB binds the disease protective allele in a sequence-specific manner, increasing expression of this immunoregulatory microRNA. Finally, CRISPR activation-based modulation of this enhancer in the PBMCs of SLE patients attenuates type I interferon pathway activation by increasing miR-146a expression. Our work provides a strategy to define non-coding RNA functional regulatory elements using disease-associated variants and provides mechanistic links between autoimmune disease risk genetic variation and disease etiology.

Evaluation of the MC4R gene across eMERGE network identifies many unreported obesity-associated variants.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) plays an essential role in food intake and energy homeostasis. More than 170 MC4R variants have been described over the past two decades, with conflicting reports regarding the prevalence and phenotypic effects of these variants in diverse cohorts. To determine the frequency of MC4R variants in large cohort of different ancestries, we evaluated the MC4R coding region for 20,537 eMERGE participants with sequencing data plus additional 77,454 independent individuals with genome-wide genotyping data at this locus. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The sequencing data were obtained from the eMERGE phase III study, in which multisample variant call format calls have been generated, curated, and annotated. In addition to penetrance estimation using body mass index (BMI) as a binary outcome, GWAS and PheWAS were performed using median BMI in linear regression analyses. All results were adjusted for principal components, age, sex, and sites of genotyping. RESULTS: Targeted sequencing data of MC4R revealed 125 coding variants in 1839 eMERGE participants including 30 unreported coding variants that were predicted to be functionally damaging. Highly penetrant unreported variants included (L325I, E308K, D298N, S270F, F261L, T248A, D111V, and Y80F) in which seven participants had obesity class III defined as BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2. In GWAS analysis, in addition to known risk haplotype upstream of MC4R (best variant rs6567160 (P = 5.36 × 10-25, Beta = 0.37), a novel rare haplotype was detected which was protective against obesity and encompassed the V103I variant with known gain-of-function properties (P = 6.23 × 10-08, Beta = -0.62). PheWAS analyses extended this protective effect of V103I to type 2 diabetes, diabetic nephropathy, and chronic renal failure independent of BMI. CONCLUSIONS: MC4R screening in a large eMERGE cohort confirmed many previous findings, extend the MC4R pleotropic effects, and discovered additional MC4R rare alleles that probably contribute to obesity.

Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk.

Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.

Pleiotropy in the Genetic Predisposition to Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Phenome-Wide Association Study and Inverse Variance-Weighted Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to investigate the hypothesis that a genetic predisposition toward rheumatoid arthritis (RA) increases the risk of 10 cardiometabolic and autoimmune disorders previously associated with RA in epidemiologic studies, and to define new genetic pleiotropy present in RA. METHODS: Two approaches were used to test our hypothesis. First, we constructed a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) and then examined its association with 10 prespecified disorders. Additionally, a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) was carried out to identify potential new associations. Second, inverse variance-weighted regression (IVWR) meta-analysis was used to characterize the association between genetic susceptibility to RA and the prespecified disorders, with the results expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: The wGRS for RA was significantly associated with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.16]; P = 9.82 × 10-4 ) and multiple sclerosis (OR 0.82 [95% CI 0.77-0.88]; P = 1.73 × 10-8 ), but not with other cardiometabolic phenotypes. In the PheWAS, wGRS was also associated with an increased risk of several autoimmune phenotypes including RA, thyroiditis, and systemic sclerosis, and with a decreased risk of demyelinating disorders. In the IVWR meta-analyses, RA was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 1 DM (P = 1.15 × 10-14 ), with evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (Mendelian Randomization-Egger intercept estimate P = 0.001) likely driven by rs2476601, a PTPN22 variant. The association between type 1 DM and RA remained significant (P = 9.53 × 10-9 ) after excluding rs2476601, with no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (intercept estimate P = 0.939). RA was also significantly associated with type 2 DM and C-reactive protein levels. These associations were driven by variation in the major histocompatibility complex region. CONCLUSION: This study presents evidence of pleiotropy between the genetic predisposition to RA and associated phenotypes found in other autoimmune and cardiometabolic disorders, including type 1 DM.

A Polygenic and Phenotypic Risk Prediction for Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Evaluated by Phenome-Wide Association Studies.

CONTEXT: As many as 75% of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are estimated to be unidentified in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: Utilizing polygenic risk prediction, we aim to identify the phenome-wide comorbidity patterns characteristic of PCOS to improve accurate diagnosis and preventive treatment. DESIGN, PATIENTS, AND METHODS: Leveraging the electronic health records (EHRs) of 124 852 individuals, we developed a PCOS risk prediction algorithm by combining polygenic risk scores (PRS) with PCOS component phenotypes into a polygenic and phenotypic risk score (PPRS). We evaluated its predictive capability across different ancestries and perform a PRS-based phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to assess the phenomic expression of the heightened risk of PCOS. RESULTS: The integrated polygenic prediction improved the average performance (pseudo-R2) for PCOS detection by 0.228 (61.5-fold), 0.224 (58.8-fold), 0.211 (57.0-fold) over the null model across European, African, and multi-ancestry participants respectively. The subsequent PRS-powered PheWAS identified a high level of shared biology between PCOS and a range of metabolic and endocrine outcomes, especially with obesity and diabetes: "morbid obesity", "type 2 diabetes", "hypercholesterolemia", "disorders of lipid metabolism", "hypertension", and "sleep apnea" reaching phenome-wide significance. CONCLUSIONS: Our study has expanded the methodological utility of PRS in patient stratification and risk prediction, especially in a multifactorial condition like PCOS, across different genetic origins. By utilizing the individual genome-phenome data available from the EHR, our approach also demonstrates that polygenic prediction by PRS can provide valuable opportunities to discover the pleiotropic phenomic network associated with PCOS pathogenesis.